Six Predictions for the Return of the NBA: Disney Bubble Edition
Photo courtesy of ClutchPoints
Heading into the official start of Summer 2020, the United States has begun taking steps towards reopening the country after three-plus months of quarantine and stay-at-home orders as a result of the COVID-19 global pandemic. Some states have done a fantastic job at slowing the virus before reopening (shout out New York), while other states have taken more reckless approaches (looking at you, Florida).
Aside from a bizarre virtual NFL Draft weekend back in April, and some golf and NASCAR racing, this global pandemic has shut down American sports as we know it. Until now.
In July, the NBA is scheduled to resume action, the first major American professional sports league to do so since early March. Teams will begin arriving at the ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex — part of Walt Disney World — near Orlando, Fla., to begin training on July 7 with play resuming July 30.
Naturally, I have some predictions for the resumption of play. From the 113-page rule book to the anonymous tip line to a new NBA Champion, here’s what to expect for the NBA’s long awaited return.
[#1] The 2020 NBA Season Will Never Finish
It pains me to voice this prediction, although it’s one I’m most confident in, but the 2020 NBA season will never conclude. For the past two weeks, after a reckless political approach to reopening, Florida has achieved new record numbers of new COVID-19 cases almost every single day. With Governor Ron DeSantis doubling down that the state will not re-close Florida’s economy despite these concerns, health experts have stated that Florida has "all of the markings of the next large epicenter of coronavirus transmission" and risks being the "worst it has ever been."
Talk about a recipe for disaster.
Although the NBA has introduced a 113-page handbook to team personnel, with a heavy emphasis on health and safety protocols, this situation does not look good. I would never wish this upon anyone, however it seems likely that players or team personnel will contract the virus.
And, if the state continues to track towards becoming the next epicenter (ala New York), I’m incredibly doubtful the NBA will be able to conclude this experiment through early October without having to shut it all down.
[#2] MTV’s Real World: NBA Disney Edition
This next prediction may still ring true if the NBA is unable to complete its 2020 season. On Thursday, the league released a 113-page handbook that detailed numerous health and safety protocols for players and team personnel to follow during their time in the NBA Disney Bubble.
This rule book is necessary and proves the NBA is taking due diligence for the safety of players and staff, yet some of these rules are comical. Several pages of the handbook detail prohibited actions by players in-game and in-practice. These include:
Spitting or clearing their nose on the court
Wiping the ball with their jersey
Licking hands (and touching other items, such as shoes or the basketball)
Playing with or unnecessarily touching their mouthguard (and touching other items)"
Essentially the league is expecting LeBron James to remember not to touch his mouthguard as he walks to the foul line, game tied with 10 seconds on the clock, in Game 7 of the Western Conference Finals. See? We can laugh at the thought of that.
Perhaps the most comical of the rules, although not in the official handbook, have been reports that the NBA will establish an anonymous tip line, encouraging anyone in the bubble to report violations of any of the protocols. This includes the day-to-day living protocols such as players remaining alone in their hotel rooms, or socially distancing during recreational activities like ping pong.
I can’t wait to see reports of Patrick Beverly (not so anonymously) reporting violations by members of the Lakers squad ahead of the Western Conference Finals (between the two squads). Or reporting James Harden for inviting guests over to party after a loss. Oh that’s some MTV’s Real World drama I’m ready to see.
The next few predictions assume that the 2020 NBA season will be completed in full without further complications from COVID-19.
[#3] King James Back on Top
With a 5.5-game lead in the Western Conference, the Los Angeles Lakers will likely finish as the No. 1 seed. The NBA Disney Bubble does negate home-court advantage while the top seed remains vital for matchups.
Yes, the Bucks still hold a slight edge in the updated 2020 NBA title betting odds, however King James still wears the crown. As the No. 1 seed, the Lakers will likely face off against a team forced to play into the eighth-seed. LeBron and AD getting extra rest before playing an eight-seed with two extra games played? Advantage - Lakers.
This also means avoiding teams like the Mavericks, Rockets or Thunder in the first round. Moving onto the second round, the Clippers will be tied up with the Nuggets - a team that bested them two of three times in the regular season and match up well with their size. The Clippers lack big man depth, which is worrisome against the Nikola Jokić’s and Anthony Davis’s of the world.
The Clippers will prevail against the Nuggets, however may be pushed to six or seven games. This sets up the battle of LA for the Western Conference Finals. King James’ ball distribution to his supporting cast of Davis, Kuzma, Howard and Danny Green will prove the key factor in this matchup.
On the other side, the Bucks will cruise to the NBA Finals - Giannis has been too dominant against the Eastern Conference and the Raptors without Kawhi puts Milwaukee over the top.
Bucks-Lakers NBA Finals. Lakers in five. Despite playing in a bubble, King James’ history in the finals gives him a huge edge over Giannis. And it comes down to star power. I’m sorry Khris Middleton, but Anthony Davis is a bigger star. He can carry more of a load. And the LeBron-Kuzma-Davis-Morris combination should be able to slow down Giannis enough for a series win.
LeBron keeps wearing his crown. And the MJ fans grow a little more fateful over the GOAT debate.
[#4] Giannis Repeats as MVP
The Greek Freak is the runaway favorite for the league’s Most Valuable Player award, and rightfully so. Despite LeBron’s incredible numbers at age 35 (yes you heard it, 35-years-old, 17th season in the league, and he’s still putting up close to a triple-double with 25 points per game), the MVP award is not solely based on talent, or unprecedented accomplishments like that of King James’ feats.
Giannis has been the best player on the best team in the league this year (by record and rating). The league’s reigning MVP came out playing better than last year, upping his points per game, his rebounds, and his three-point shooting percentage: all while putting up the fifth-best player efficiency rating in league history (according to BPM rating).
[#5] ‘Dame’ Lillard Buzzer Beats the 8-Seed Play-In Series
Damian Lillard is a clutch shooter. And he loves to do this in the playoffs. Only five players in NBA-history have clinched playoff series with a buzzer-beater and ‘Dame’ has done this twice. Once back in 2014 and then again last year (both are epic - must watch).
I have the Trailblazers slated for that No. 8 seed-No. 9 seed play-in round against the Grizzlies and thinking that Lillard has some more magic in him. Let’s see if he can send the Grizzlies home from half-court this year.
[#6] Offseason Outlook: Knicks’ Misery, Davis Maxes Out with LAL, DeRozan Finds a Winner, Rockets Pull the Plug
Moving into the end of 2020, after each of my predictions will magically come true, I’d like to offer some insight into the upcoming offseason.
Knicks Woes
The NBA Lottery was pushed back to Aug. 25 under the same format as last year. In recent NBA history, the NBA Lottery is symbolic of the disastrous woes for New York Knicks fans. This trend continues.
Although the Knicks finished five spots better this year (five spots worse for lottery odds), I promise that Knicks fans will once again be disappointed. The team will not jump into the top-5, echoing memories of missing out on Zion a year ago, despite the best odds for the No. 1 pick.
Davis Maxes Out
After winning his first-ever NBA title with King James, Anthony Davis will happily sign a max contract with the Lakers (I’m thinking the four-year, $146 million option).
DeRozan Finds a Winner
DeMar DeRozan is in search of a winner - which is not looking on the immediate horizon in San Antonio. He signs with the Orlando Magic and propels them towards the top half of the Eastern Conference in coming years.
Rockets Pull the Plug
James Harden can’t seem to take his Houston Rockets to that next level. The conference finals or NBA Finals level. And after seeing his former teammate Chris Paul and the OKC Thunder finish with a better record to end the year - the Rockets will pull the plug on this group. Not sure exactly how the restart will look with their lack of young, franchise player talent, but it’s time for a change in Houston.
